Survey of Market Expectations (REM), March 2024

Summary:

A recent report published on April 8, 2024, presents the results of a survey conducted among 37 participants, including 24 local and international research centers and 13 financial entities from Argentina. The participants estimated a monthly inflation rate of 12.5% for March, 10.8% for April, and 189.4% for the year. For 2024, the projected inflation rate is 179.0% (International Annualized rate), which is a 27.3% decrease from the previous survey.

The report also forecasts a 3.5% decrease in the Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) for 2024, with the top 10 participants projecting a 4.1% decrease. The outlook suggests a recovery in economic activity in the third quarter of 2024, with a 0.6% quarterly growth rate.

Regarding unemployment, the survey participants estimate a 7.1% open unemployment rate for the first quarter of 2024, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous survey. Additionally, the report projects a 71.9% Banco de Descriptores de Arrendamiento en Libre Asociaciu00f3n (BADLAR) rate for private banks for April.

The median of participants' forecasts for the nominal exchange rate is $876.3 per US dollar for the average of April 2024. The report also provides forecasts for trade, with participants estimating import and export values of $65.162 million and $80.842 million, respectively, for 2024. Finally, the survey projects a primary fiscal surplus of $4.924 billion for the Non-Financial Public Sector (SPNF) for 2024.