Survey of Market Expectations (REM), July 2023

Summary:

The Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM) report for July 2023, published on August 15, 2023, presents the results of a survey conducted among 37 participants, including 24 consultancies and research centers, and 13 financial entities in Argentina. The survey was conducted between July 27-31, 2023.

The report highlights the following key findings:

Inflation estimates for July 2023 were 7.0% monthly, whereas the actual data showed 6.3% (0.7 percentage points lower than expected).
Inflation expectations for 2023 were 140.7% annualized, with the top 10 forecasters estimating 140.9% annualized.
The REM participants expected GDP real growth for 2023 to be 2.8% lower than in 2022, improving the outlook by 0.2 percentage points from the previous survey.
Unemployment is expected to reach 7.2% in the second quarter of 2023 and 7.7% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
The participants estimated the BADLAR rate for private banks to be 92.5% in August 2023, with a monthly interest rate of 7.7%.
The REM participants forecast a nominal exchange rate of $286.1 per dollar for the month of August 2023, with a monthly appreciation of 7.4%.
Exports are expected to amount to $69.366 million in 2023, while imports are expected to reach $71.657 million, resulting in a trade deficit.
The REM participants projected a fiscal primary deficit for the Non-Financial Public Sector (SPNF) of $4.144 billion for 2023 and $3.050 billion for 2024.

The report provides insights into the market expectations and forecasts for various economic indicators in Argentina, providing valuable information for policymakers, investors, and analysts.