En el presente informe, publicado el d�a 11 de enero de 2024, se difunden los resultados del relevamiento realizado entre los d�as 27 y 29 de diciembre de 2023. Se contemplaron pron�sticos de 37 participantes, entre quienes se cuentan 25 consultoras y centros de investigaci�n locales e internacionales y 12 entidades financieras de Argentina.,En el �ltimo relevamiento del a�o, los analistas estimaron una inflaci�n mensual de 25,0% para enero y una inflaci�n para el a�o de 213,0% i.a. (21,2 p.p. m�s que en la encuesta previa). Quienes mejor pronosticaron esa variable en el pasado (Top-10) esperaban en el relevamiento de fines de diciembre una inflaci�n de 25,5% para enero y de 201,5% i.a. para 2024. Respecto del IPC N�cleo, las y los participantes del REM ubicaron sus previsiones para 2024 en 243,4% i.a. ,En el relevamiento de diciembre, los analistas del REM proyectaron para 2024 un nivel del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) real 2,6% inferior al promedio de 2023, empeorando la perspectiva en 0,2 p.p. respecto del relevamiento previo. Este deterioro se concentra en el primer trimestre, per�odo para el cual los participantes redujeron su pron�stico en 0,9 p.p. En tanto, quienes constituyen el Top-10 proyectaron, en promedio, una reducci�n de 2,7% en el a�o. Para 2025, el conjunto de los participantes del REM estim� un nuevo crecimiento promedio de 2,3% i.a. ,La tasa de desocupaci�n abierta para el cuarto trimestre del a�o se proyect� en 6,6% de la Poblaci�n Econ�micamente Activa (PEA, -0,4 p.p. respecto al REM previo). Para el Top-10, la tasa de desempleo se habr�a ubicado en 6,5% en igual per�odo. Para el I-24, los participantes del REM estimaron una tasa de desocupaci�n de 7,5% de la PEA, sin cambios respecto al relevamiento anterior. ,Para enero, quienes participan del REM pronosticaron una tasa BADLAR de bancos privados de 108,30% TNA, equivalente a una tasa efectiva mensual de 8,9%. Quienes constituyen el Top-10 preve�an, en promedio, que la misma se ubique en 107,56% en el mes de enero.,Los analistas del REM pronosticaron el tipo de cambio nominal en $820,3 por d�lar para el promedio de enero de 2024. Para el Top-10 el tipo de cambio nominal promedio esperado para ene-24 es $834,90/USD. La var. i.a. a dic-24 impl�cita en los pron�sticos es del 164,8%. ,En cuanto al comercio exterior de bienes, quienes participan del REM estimaron para 2024 que las exportaciones (FOB) totalicen USD 83.952 millones y las importaciones (CIF) USD69.372 millones. ,Finalmente, la proyecci�n del super�vit fiscal primario del Sector P�blico Nacional no Financiero (SPNF) que realizan los participantes del REM se ubic� en $666,4 miles de millones para 2024 que contrasta con el d�ficit de $928,9 miles de millones esperado en el REM previo. El promedio del Top-10 alcanza a un d�ficit de $57 miles de millones para 2024., Descargar informe, Acceder a todas las ediciones,Jueves 11 de enero de 2024 , , 
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Summary:
A report published on January 11, 2024, presents the results of a survey conducted between December 27-29, 2023. The survey included 37 participants, comprising 25 local and international consultancies, research centers, and 12 financial entities in Argentina. The report provides inflation, economic growth, unemployment, and foreign trade forecasts for 2024.
Key Findings:
Inflation is expected to reach 25.5% in January and 201.5% in 2024, with the top 10 participants forecasting 25.0% and 213.0% respectively.
The Productive Internal Basis (PIB) is expected to decline by 2.6% in 2024, with the top 10 participants estimating a reduction of 2.7%.
The unemployment rate for the fourth quarter of the year is projected to be 6.6% of the Economically Active Population (PEA), with the top 10 participants forecasting 6.5%.
The rate of open unemployment for 2024 is expected to reach 7.5%, with no changes from the previous survey.
The Rate of Bank Deposit and Lending (BADLAR) for private banks is expected to be 108.30% in January, with the top 10 participants forecasting 107.56%.
The nominal exchange rate is expected to be $820.3 per dollar for the average of January 2024, with the top 10 participants forecasting $834.90.
* The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to reach a trade deficit of $928.9 million in 2024.
Please note that this summary only provides a brief overview of the report and does not include all the details and analysis presented.
Highlights content goes here...
Summary:
This report, published on January 11, 2024, presents the results of a survey conducted among 37 participants, including 25 local and international consultants and research centers, and 12 Argentine financial institutions. The survey was conducted between December 27 and 29, 2023.
The report provides insights on various macroeconomic indicators, including inflation, GDP, unemployment, and interest rates. For January 2024, the survey participants estimated an inflation rate of 25.0%, which is slightly higher than the previous estimate. The Top-10 participants expected an inflation rate of 25.5% for January 2024.
Regarding the GDP, the participants of the REM (Respondents Economic Monitor) projected a real GDP growth rate for 2024 that is 2.6% lower than the average of 2023, representing an improvement of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous survey. The Top-10 participants, on average, projected a reduction of 2.7% in the GDP for 2024.
The survey also estimated the open unemployment rate for the fourth quarter of 2024, which was projected to be 6.6% of the economically active population (PEA), a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous survey. For the Top-10 participants, the open unemployment rate was expected to be 6.5%.
Additionally, the report provided estimates for interest rates, the exchange rate, and trade balances. The participants of the REM projected a nominal exchange rate of $820.3 per US dollar for the average of January 2024, while the Top-10 participants predicted an average exchange rate of $834.90 per US dollar. The Top-10 participants also expected a decline in the BADLAR rate, with an average of 107.56% in January 2024.
The survey participants estimated that the trade balance for 2024 would show an exports (FOB) value of USD 83.952 million and an imports (CIF) value of USD 69.372 million.
Finally, the report presented projections for the primary fiscal surplus of the Non-Financial Public Sector (SPNF) for 2024, which was estimated to be $666.4 billion by the REM participants, contrasting with the expected deficit of $928.9 billion in the previous survey. The Top-10 participants predicted a deficit of $57 billion for 2024.
Overall, this report provides a comprehensive overview of the macroeconomic outlook for Argentina, highlighting the expected trends and forecasts for various key indicators.
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