Survey of inflation and growth expectations – 4th quarter 2023

Summary:

A recent survey conducted between November 22 and December 14, 2023, among Italian businesses with at least 50 employees in the industry and services sectors shows a slight improvement in assessments of the country's overall economic situation and expectations for their own operating conditions over the next three months. The moderate recovery of domestic demand and less negative conditions for investment, particularly in the services sector, contributed to the recovery. The survey also indicates that nine out of ten companies consider their liquidity conditions to be sufficient. For the first quarter of 2024, businesses expect an expansion of employment. Price dynamics continued to weaken, and are expected to further decline over the next 12 months. Approximately two-thirds of respondents expect an increase in hourly wages for their employees over the next 12 months, and almost one-third stated they had already taken into account potential future salary increases in their pricing lists. Inflation expectations at the consumer level have significantly decreased, ranging from around 2.5% for short-term horizons to just above 2% for long-term horizons.