Brief

Summary:

A recent survey conducted between November 22 and December 14, 2023, among Italian businesses with at least 50 employees in the industry and services sectors shows a slight improvement in assessments of the country's overall economic situation and expectations for their own operating conditions over the next three months. The moderate recovery of domestic demand and less negative conditions for investment, particularly in the services sector, contributed to the recovery. The survey also indicates that nine out of ten companies consider their liquidity conditions to be sufficient. For the first quarter of 2024, businesses expect an expansion of employment. Price dynamics continued to weaken, and are expected to further decline over the next 12 months. Approximately two-thirds of respondents expect an increase in hourly wages for their employees over the next 12 months, and almost one-third stated they had already taken into account potential future salary increases in their pricing lists. Inflation expectations at the consumer level have significantly decreased, ranging from around 2.5% for short-term horizons to just above 2% for long-term horizons.

Secondo l’indagine condotta tra il 22 novembre e il 14 dicembre del 2023 presso le imprese italiane dell’industria e dei servizi con almeno 50 addetti, le valutazioni sulla situazione economica generale del Paese, così come le attese sulle proprie condizioni operative nei successivi tre mesi, restano nel complesso sfavorevoli, sebbene in miglioramento rispetto alla rilevazione precedente. Al lieve recupero dei giudizi hanno contribuito una moderata ripresa della domanda interna e condizioni per investire meno negative soprattutto nei servizi, che si accompagnano alla tenuta della spesa attesa per investimenti. Nello scorcio dell’anno si è attenuato il peggioramento dei giudizi sull’accesso al credito per tutti i settori e nove imprese su dieci dichiarano almeno sufficienti le proprie condizioni di liquidità. Per il primo trimestre del 2024 le imprese prevedono un proseguimento dell’espansione dell’occupazione.

La dinamica dei prezzi praticati dalle aziende ha continuato a indebolirsi e si attenuerebbe ulteriormente nei prossimi 12 mesi. Circa due terzi delle aziende prevedono un aumento delle retribuzioni orarie dei propri dipendenti nei prossimi 12 mesi e quasi un terzo dichiara di aver già tenuto conto nel corso del 2023 di eventuali aumenti salariali futuri nei propri listini. Le attese sull’inflazione al consumo si sono nettamente ridotte su tutti gli orizzonti temporali, collocandosi poco sotto il 2,5 per cento sugli orizzonti a breve termine e appena sopra il 2 per cento su quelli a lungo.

Highlights content goes here...

Summary:

A survey conducted between November 22nd and December 14th, 2023, among Italian companies in the industry and services sectors with at least 50 employees, has revealed that general economic sentiment in the country remains unfavorable, although marginally improving compared to the previous survey.

The moderate recovery in internal demand and more positive investment conditions, particularly in the service sector, have contributed to the slight improvement in sentiment. Additionally, the perception of access to credit has improved, with nine out of ten companies stating that their liquidity conditions are sufficient.

Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2024, companies expect employment to continue growing. The dynamics of prices charged by companies have continued to weaken and are expected to further decrease over the next 12 months.

Notably, approximately two-thirds of companies anticipate increases in hourly wages for their employees over the next 12 months, while nearly a third have already factored future salary increases into their pricing lists. Expectations around consumer inflation have significantly decreased across all time horizons, sitting below 2.5% for short-term horizons and just above 2% for long-term horizons.

Overall, the survey presents a mixed picture, with some positive trends and concerns remaining. However, the general sentiment suggests that Italian companies are becoming increasingly optimistic about their future prospects.

Relevant Information: None

Bank of Italy

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