Brief

Summary:

An online survey conducted among Italian businesses with at least 50 employees in the industry and services sector from August 23 to September 13, 2023, revealed a deterioration in the economic outlook and business conditions. The respondents' expectations regarding the country's economic situation, as well as their own operational conditions over the next three months, have significantly worsened compared to the previous quarter. While the difficulties related to energy resource costs have subsided, the overall demand dynamics have deteriorated, with a decline in foreign demand for the first time since the end of 2020. The prospects for sales have also weakened, but remain favorable overall. Investment conditions have deteriorated, with companies expecting a decline in growth rate in 2023. Employment prospects have become less favorable, and price-setting by businesses has slowed down and is expected to continue to decelerate over the next 12 months. Finally, expectations regarding consumer inflation have further decreased across all time horizons, with forecasts ranging from 4.2% to 4.7% over the next 12 months, down from a peak of 8.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022.

È online l’indagine sulle aspettative di inflazione e crescita condotta tra il 23 agosto e il 13 settembre 2023 presso le imprese italiane dell’industria e dei servizi con almeno 50 addetti.

Secondo l’indagine, le valutazioni sulla situazione economica generale del Paese, così come le attese sulle proprie condizioni operative nei successivi tre mesi, sono significativamente peggiorate rispetto a quelle rilevate nel trimestre precedente, sebbene le difficoltà legate al costo dei beni energetici si siano ulteriormente attenuate. La dinamica della domanda complessiva si è deteriorata, risentendo del calo della componente estera per la prima volta dalla fine del 2020. Anche le prospettive sulle vendite si sono indebolite, pur rimanendo nel complesso ancora favorevoli.

I giudizi sulle condizioni per investire sono peggiorati, proseguendo la tendenza in atto dall’inizio del 2022, anche se le imprese continuano a prefigurare una crescita degli investimenti nel complesso del 2023, seppur più contenuta rispetto a tre mesi fa. Le prospettive sull’occupazione sono divenute meno favorevoli.

I prezzi praticati dalle aziende nell’ultimo anno hanno continuato a rallentare e decelererebbero anche nei successivi 12 mesi. Le attese sull’inflazione al consumo si sono ulteriormente ridotte su tutti gli orizzonti temporali, attestandosi al 4,7 per cento sui 12 mesi (dall’8,1 nel quarto trimestre 2022, il valore massimo della serie) e al 4,2 e 3,8 per cento sugli orizzonti rispettivamente a 2 anni e tra 3 e 5 anni.

Highlights content goes here...

Summary:

Between August 23rd and September 13th, 2023, a survey was conducted among Italian companies in the industry and services sectors with at least 50 employees. The survey examined their expectations on inflation and growth. According to the results, the evaluations of the country’s overall economic situation and the expected operational conditions for the next three months have significantly worsened compared to the previous quarter.

Despite the energy goods cost-related difficulties being further eased, the overall demand dynamic has deteriorated, particularly due to a decline in foreign demand for the first time since the end of 2020. The prospects for sales have also weakened, remaining favorable overall but with a decline from the previous quarter. Opinion on investment conditions has worsened, following a trend since the beginning of 2022. However, companies still anticipate an increase in investments in 2023, albeit slightly reduced compared to three months earlier.

The prospects for employment have become less favorable. The prices charged by companies over the past year have continued to decelerate and are expected to continue to do so over the next 12 months. The expectations on consumer inflation have continued to decrease across all time horizons, settling at 4.7% for the next 12 months (down from 8.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022, the highest value in the series), and at 4.2% and 3.8% for the 2- and 3-5-year horizons, respectively.

In summary, the survey reveals a mixed picture, with some aspects, such as price expectations, showing significant improvement while others, such as demand dynamics and employment prospects, demonstrating a deterioration.

Bank of Italy

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