Market Snapshot: How “ready” are energy technologies?
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Release date: 2025-02-05
Reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 2050 in Canada will require a variety of energy technologies, likely including some not widely used today. Canada’s Energy Future 2023 (EF2023) is the Canada Energy Regulator (CER)’s latest long-term energy outlook where two of the three modeled scenarios explored what achieving net-zero GHG emissions by 2050 could look likeFootnote 1. Those two scenariosFootnote 2 highlighted how we use and produce energy in Canada could look a lot different in the future. A key element of the net-zero scenarios was the widescale use of various clean energy technologies. Some of the technologies in the CER’s net-zero scenarios are becoming increasingly familiar to Canadians, like solar panels and electric vehicles. Others, like hydrogen-fueled freight vehicles or small modular reactors, are more uncommon or not used at all in Canada today.
The International Energy Agency (IEA)’s Clean Energy Technology Guide contains regularly updated information on over 550 individual technologies that could play a role in achieving net-zero emissions. This information includes an assessment of each technology’s state of readiness, or Technology Readiness Level (TRL). The IEA ranks TRL on a scale (Figure 1) from 1 to 11, from an initial idea to prototypes, demonstration projects, commercialization and finally mature technologies with widespread adoption.
Figure 1: Technology readiness level scale
Source and Text Alternative
Source: International Energy Agency
Text Alternative: The figure shows a scale, with five major categories along the scale, each with subcategories. Starting from the left, the first category is “Concept”, including 1) Initial Idea, 2) Application formulated, and 3) Concept needs validation. The next category is “Prototype”, including 4) Early prototype, 5) Large prototype, and 6) Prototype at scale. The next category is “Demonstration”, including 7) Pre-commercial demonstration and 8) First of a kind commercial. The next category is “Market Uptake”, including 9) Commercial operation and 10) Integration needed at scale. The last category on the right end of the scale is “Mature”, including 11) Proof of stability reached.
A technology with a low TRL is nuclear fusion, which mimics the process going on in the sun—fusing together two lighter atomic nuclei into a heavier one—harnessing the energy that is created. Fusion, which is different from nuclear fission technology currently used in nuclear power plants, has long been discussed as a potential source of non-emitting electricity but has not been commercialized to date. It has a TRL of 1 to 3, meaning the basic principles of the technology are defined, but it requires further development. At the other end of the spectrum, examples like hydroelectric power generation and conventional light emitting diode (LED) light bulbs have a TRL of 11.
Table 1: Key technologies in EF2023 and their TRL rating in the IEA’s Clean Energy Technology Guide
Key technologies in EF2023 and their TRL rating in the IEA’s Clean Energy Technology Guide
TechnologyTable Note a
Technology Readiness LevelTable Note b
Status in EF2023 Net-zero scenarios
Onshore wind electricity generation
10
8% of total generation in 2023 to 27% by 2050.
Offshore wind electricity generation (seabed fixed)
10
No generation in 2023 to just under 2% of total generation by 2050.
Solar panels
10
Less than 2% of total electricity generation in 2023, to 5% by 2050.
Hydrogenation-derived renewable diesel
9-10
Small volumes currently, steadily increases to 4% of total transportation energy use by 2050.
Air source (traditional and cold climate) and ground source heat pumps
9-10
Some adoption currently, to about 50% of residential space heating by 2050.
Hydrogen production using electrolysis
9
Production reaches 8 megatonnes by 2050.
Battery electric passenger car
8-9
9% of vehicle sales (all vehicle types) in first half of 2024 were battery electric vehicles, nearly all passenger vehicle sales by 2035.
Hydrogen fuel cell freight vehicle
8-9
Very limited use currently, to 54% of total freight transportation energy demand by 2050.
Natural gas-fired power generation with carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS)
8
No generation in 2023 to 5% of total generation by 2050.
Small modular reactor power generation
6-7
Generation begins in 2030, to 12% of total generation by 2050.
Bioenergy power generation with CCUS
6-7
Generation begins in 2031, to 4% of total generation by 2050.
Direct air capture
6-7
Very small use starts in 2032, more significant use by 2040, reaches 46 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent captured by 2050.
Table Notes
Table Note a
When multiple technologies in the Clean Energy Technology Guide could be representative of a technology modeled in EF2023, the TRL is shown as a range in Table 1.
Return to table note a referrer
Table Note b
In several cases a single technology in the Clean Energy Technology Guide is assigned a range for the TRL score and is presented as a range in Table 1.
Return to first table note b referrer
Table 1 shows the TRL levels of many key technologies in EF2023, and that many of those technologies are advanced enough to be used today. Table 1 also indicates the level of use of those technologies in the net-zero scenarios in EF2023. Most clean energy technologies with higher TRL levels are in use in Canada already, and that usage was assumed to grow steadily throughout the entire projection period. Technologies that are not as advanced, like small modular reactors and direct air capture facilities, typically did not appear in the net-zero scenarios until 2030 or later.
Technology readiness was factored into the EF2023 assumptions by altering when a technology was recognized as available and how much it would cost. High TRL technologies were a potential choice for consumers and businesses immediately in the modeling, whereas lower TRL technologies were generally an option later in the scenarios. In addition, TRL impacted the cost assumptions of constructing or purchasing a given technology in the projections. Technologies with lower TRL values typically represent riskier investments, meaning raising money to finance such investments is more expensive as lenders and investors seek higher interest rates and return on equity . In the EF2023 modeling, technologies were chosen based on economic factors and higher costs reduce the likelihood of a given technology being built.
Technological readiness was only one of many factors impacting the outcomes in the modeling for EF2023, and ultimately what the future of energy in Canada could look like. Policies in Canada and abroad, fuel costs, and economic activity were other key factors that shaped our assumptions and modeling results. Factors influencing the energy future, but beyond the scope of the modeling in EF2023, included evolving societal preferences, future regulatory frameworks and decisions, socioeconomic and affordability considerations, and the interaction between the energy transition and Canada's journey towards Reconciliation.
Footnotes
Footnote 1
The analysis in EF2023 and this Market Snapshot are not predictions or recommendations but rather projections based on the outcomes from the CER’s suite of energy and economy models. Any long-term outlook is subject to uncertainty; the results in this analysis should not be considered definitive but rather an exploration of possible energy futures.
Return to footnote 1 referrer
Footnote 2
Current Measures Scenario assumes limited action in Canada to reduce GHG emissions beyond measures in place in March 2023 and does not require that Canada achieve net-zero emissions. In this scenario, we also assume limited future global climate action. Global Net-zero Scenario assumes Canada achieves net-zero emissions by 2050. We also assume the rest of the world reduces emissions enough to limit warming to 1.5°C. Canada Net-zero Scenario assumes Canada achieves net-zero emissions by 2050, but the rest of the world moves more slowly to reduce GHG emissions.
Return to footnote 2 referrer
Date modified:
2025-02-04
