Economic Bulletin no. 4 – 2023

Here is a short summary of the document:

Global Economy Slows Down

The global economic activity has slowed down, with a deceleration in service sector expansion and a continued decline in the manufacturing cycle. Geopolitical tensions, exacerbated by recent terrorist attacks in Israel, are weighing on the global economic outlook. The weakness in international trade is affecting the prospects of international trade. Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, have maintained a restrictive monetary policy, with inflation rates still elevated.

European Economy Remains Weak

In the euro area, the economic cycle remains weak, with a decline in inflation. The estimated real GDP growth in the euro area has continued in the summer months. The manufacturing sector is still weak, and services are also showing signs of slowing down. The unemployment rate remains stable, and the wage growth is moderate.

Italian Economy Remains Weak

Italy's economy has also remained weak, with a decline in GDP growth in the summer months. The labor market is showing signs of slowing down, and the unemployment rate is stable. The inflation rate is still elevated, and the growth rate is expected to remain low in the near future.

Scenario for the Future

The scenario for the future is characterized by a slow growth rate, with a decline in the inflation rate. The GDP growth rate is expected to be 0.7% in 2023, 0.8% in 2024, and 1.0% in 2025. The inflation rate is expected to decline to 2.4% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025. The risks to the economy are skewed to the downside, with geopolitical tensions and a decline in Chinese economic growth being the main risks.