Economic Bulletin no. 1 – 2024

Summary:

Global economy slows down: The OECD's latest estimates predict a slowdown in global GDP growth due to monetary policy tightening and declining consumer and business confidence. The risks associated with international political tensions remain elevated, particularly in the Middle East. Failures in global trade and services are expected to remain modest in the current year.

Meanwhile, the inflation rate has fallen and is expected to continue to fall, reaching 2% in 2025. The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained its interest rates and has reduced its reinvestment of securities. The tightening monetary policy has led to a strong contraction in monetary aggregates, affecting lending to households and businesses.

Italy's GDP has remained flat in the fourth quarter of 2023, with a modest increase of 0.6% expected in 2024 and 1.1% in each of the next two years. The current account surplus has consolidated, with a positive balance in the third quarter, and the net creditor position remains strong. Employment continues to grow, with a robust wage growth, while the inflation rate has fallen, with a forecast of 1.7% in 2026.

Overall, the report highlights the challenges facing the global economy, including inflation, monetary policy, and international political tensions.