Market Expectations Survey (REM), January 2024

Summary:

The report published on February 6, 2024, presents the results of the first survey of 2024, conducted from January 29-31, 2024. The survey included 37 participants, consisting of 24 local and international consulting firms and research centers, as well as 13 Argentine financial institutions.

The participants estimated a monthly inflation rate of 21.9% for January, 18.0% for February, and 227.0% for 2024. For the same period, the consensus among the top 10 forecasters was 21.3% for January, 16.5% for February, and 207.4% for 2024.

The survey also projected a -3.0% change in the Product Interno Bruto (PIB) for 2024, a reduction of 0.4 p.p. from the previous survey. The unemployment rate for the first quarter of 2024 was estimated at 7.7% of the Poblaciu00f3n Econu00f3micamente Activa (PEA), while the top 10 forecasters projected a rate of 7.0%.

Other key findings included a projected tasa BADLAR of 109.00% TNA for private banks in February, equivalent to a monthly effective interest rate of 9.0%; a nominal exchange rate of $839.7 per dollar for the average of February 2024; and projected exports and imports of USD82.875 million and USD66.912 million, respectively, for 2024.

Finally, the participants projected a surplus of $881.1 billion for the sector pu00fablico nacional no financiero (SPNF) for 2024, a increase of $214.7 billion from the previous survey.