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Brief
On July 5, 2025, the Brazilian Financial and Capital Markets Association updated its forecast regarding the Selic rate. The Macroeconomic Group reduced its projection for the end of 2025 to 14.75% per annum, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points from its previous estimate in March. This adjustment reflects market uncertainties stemming from the US government's tariff war, which may favor the Brazilian real against the dollar. The forecast for the US dollar has also receded from R$6 to R$5.87.
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